You hear all the time how expansion has diluted the pitching in the major leagues. People wistfully point to the years when there were just 16 teams and talk about how tough Babe Ruth had it in his day.
The truth, though, today it is nearly twice as hard to reach the major leagues as it was for the Babe.
In 1920, Ruth's first season with the New York Yankees, the Census Bureau totaled the U.S. population at 106 million. The male population through the decades has roughly been about 49 percent so there were about 52 million males in the U.S. at that time.
There were 16 teams in the major leagues with 25-man rosters, meaning at any one time, there were 400 major league jobs.
Of course, in 1920, blacks weren't allowed in the major leagues, meaning about 5.2 million males out of the original 52 million were ineligible.
So essentially, you had 400 jobs for about 47.8 million white men and boys which equals 117,000 men per major league roster spot.
Today, there are 30 major league teams and 750 major league positions, so the number of openings has nearly doubled.
The U.S. population, though, nearly tripled. In 2000, there were 281 million people in the U.S., including 34.7 million blacks, which now can play in the major leagues. Again estimating the male population at 49 percent, there were roughly 137.9 million males eligible for those 750 big league jobs. That equals about 184,000 per big league roster spot.
The expansion in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, actually helped bring that number down. The toughest Census year to reach the bigs, when looking at just the U.S. population, was 1960 when there was still just the 16 teams and 400 positions available for a male (both black and white) population of 87.9 million. That meant there was one major league spot for every 220,000 males.
Today, if you wanted to make it as easy to reach the majors as it was back in the Babe's day, you'd need to add 16 more teams. At 46 major league teams, there'd be a spot for every 119,900 men.
Of course, the major leagues are more international than ever before and taking that into consideration shows it's never been more difficult to reach the bigs.
Here is a list of the percentage of international players making their big league debuts in each decade. The 2000s data is through the 2005 season.
Year, total new players, international players, pctg.
1900s -- 1,081 new players, 51 foreign players, 4.7 percent.
1910s -- 1,534 new players, 40 foreign players, 2.6 percent.
1920s -- 1,203 new players, 17 foreign players, 1.4 percent.
1930s -- 1,037 new players, 19 foreign players, 1.8 percent.
1940s -- 1,166 new players, 50 foreign players, 4.3 percent.
(Color bar falls in 1947)
1950s -- 1,076 new players, 84 foreign players, 7.8 percent.
(Boston Red Sox last team to integrate in 1958)
1960s -- 1,246 new players, 139 foreign players, 11.2 percent.
1970s -- 1,312 new players, 138 foreign players, 10.5 percent.
1980s -- 1,457 new players, 191 foreign players, 13.1 percent.
1990s -- 1,877 new players, 418 foreign players, 22.3 percent.
2000s -- 1,200 new players through 2005, 320 foreign players, 26.7 percent.
In 1920, major league players almost entirely came from the U.S., Canada and Cuba. If you added the white populations of Canada -- which was 90 percent white -- and Cuba -- just 39 percent white -- to the U.S., you had 51.2 million men for 400 positions or one roster spot for every 127,948 males.
The 1930s saw the beginning of the Venezuelan influx. Once the color line fell, players from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic -- both overwhelmingly black countries -- began making the majors in the 1960s and 1970s. Mexicans didn't start signing with major league organizations in any real numbers until the 1970s and the 1990s and this decade have seen the coming of the Japanese.
Today, the 30 teams and 750 major league spots are being fought over by players from seven predominant countries with a combined male population of 287.3 million. That's one big league roster spot for every 383,170 males.
To get that number back to the ratio of 127,948 in Babe's day of 1920, you'd need 90 teams.
The major leagues have never been more major.
No comments:
Post a Comment