Saturday, July 30, 2005

Who would be invited to the all-time singles tennis tournaments

Roger Federer already is the greatest Swiss tennis player in history. After his third straight win at Wimbledon, where he again appeared to be playing two to three levels above everyone else, experts are discussing his ranking among the best ever.

The 2005 Wimbledon also was notable because of the return of Venus Williams. Her career has been on the decline for a couple of seasons and a number of younger players -- including the whole Russian revolution -- had come along seemingly relegating her to second-tier status. But Venus showed she may have a second act in store for us.

With the U.S. Open (which means the end of summer) approaching, where do these players rank among the best of the professional era? Here's who would be the top 32 seeds in a women's and men's all-time tournament based on a ranking system I created giving points for finishing first or second in a major tournament, along with bonus points for margin of victory or sets won in a loss and an evolving bonus system for quality wins.

The ranking is only for players in the open era. Bill Tilden, Helen Wills Moody, et. al. played in times where the best players weren't necessarily playing in the majors. This also hurt players who spanned both eras -- sorry Billie Jean King and Rod Laver.

To give an example of how it works, I'll break down the career of Czechoslovakian great Hana Mandlikova.

Mandlikova first earned points in 1980 with a straight set win in the Australian Open over Wendy Turnbill of the U.S. For the win, Mandlikova earned 10 points (to Turnbill's 5) plus the maximum of 2 bonus points for the straight set win. Mandlikova did not receive any bonus points for quality wins because Turnbill never won a major tournament. Also in 1980, Mandlikova lost the U.S. Open to Chris Evert-Lloyd in three sets, earning Hana 5 points for second and 1 point for winning a set. So Mandlikova's total score in 1980 was 18.

In 1981, Mandlikova beat Sylvia Hanika in straight sets to win the French, earning 10 points plus 2 for margin of victory and no points for quality wins because Hanika also never won a major. At Wimbledon, she lost the final to Evert-Lloyd in straight sets, earning 5 points. Her 1981 total was 17.

In 1982, Mandlikova lost the U.S. Open again to Evert-Lloyd in straight sets for 5 points.

Hana didn't make a major final again until 1985 when she defeated Martina Navratilova in three sets to win the U.S. Open. The win was worth 10, the margin was worth 1 point and the win over Navratilova was worth 9 points because a player earns a half-point for every major won by the player she defeated. Navratilova went on to win 18 majors in her career, meaning every player who defeated her in a final received the 9 bonus points. So Hana's total for this one win was 20 points.

The theory behind the bonus system is a win over a Navratilova, Evert or Steffi Graf is much more significant than a win over Sylvia Hanika.

In 1986, she lost in straight sets to Navratilova at Wimbledon but avenged it at the Australian with a straight-set win over for Martina for her fourth and final major title. The win over Navratilova was worth 21 points (10 for win, 2 for margin, 9 for quality win).

So her yearly point totals added up this way.

1980, 18
1981, 17
1982, 5
1985, 20
1986, 5
1987, 21

How does this add up? I used a five-step system weighted more toward one or three great seasons to give her a score.

Mandlikova's best year was 1987 when she got a 21 so her 1-year score is 21.

Her three best years ('87, '85, '80) added up to 59 points.

Her best five years ('87, '85, '80, '81 and '82 or '86) added up to 81.

And her 10-year score of 86 was also her career total.

So you add the five together.
21 + 59 + 81 + 86 + 86 = 333.

Again, one great season pushes you fairly high because it's 100 percent of the 1-year score, one-third of the 3-year, one-fifth of the 5-year and 10 percent of the 10-year score.

So after giving an example of how a score is compiled, here are the top 32 seeds (in reverse order) for an all-time women's tournament. Players in bold are still active.

No. 32, Wendy Turnbill, United States, 1977-1980, 65.0
No. 31, Helena Sukova, Czechoslovakia, 1984-1993, 67.0
No. 30, Mary Joe Fernandez, United States, 1990-1993, 69.0
No. 29, Nancy Richey, United States, 1968-1969, 71.0
No. 28, Maria Sharapova, Russia, 2004, 77.5
No. 27, Christine O'Neill, Australia, 1978, 85.0
No. 26, Mimi Jausovec, Yugoslavia, 1977-1983, 95.0
No. 25, Kim Clijsters, Belgium, 2001-2004, 98.0
No. 24, Kerry Melville-Reid, Australia, 1970-1977, 100.0
No. 23, Virginia Ruzici, Romania, 1978-1980, 107.5
No. 22, Jana Novotna, Czechoslovakia, 1991-1998, 126.0
No. 21, Ann Haydon-Jones, Great Britain, 1968-1969, 139.0
No. 20, Conchita Martinez, Spain, 1994-2000, 140.0
No. 19, Gabriela Sabatini, Argentina, 1988-1991, 163.0
No. 18, Mary Pierce, France, 1994-2005, 170.0
No. 17, Jennifer Capriati, United States, 2001-2002, 181.5
No. 16, Tracy Austin, United States, 1979-1981, 185.0
No. 15, Virginia Wade, Great Britain, 1968-1977, 191.0
No. 14, Justin Henin-Hardenne, Belgium, 2001-2005, 234.0
No. 13, Lindsay Davenport, United States, 1998-2005, 308.5
No. 12, Hana Mandlikova, Czechoslovakia, 1980-1987, 333.0
No. 11, Venus Williams, United States, 1997-2005, 394.0
No. 10, Martina Hingis, Switzerland, 1997-2002, 425.0
No. 9, Serena Williams, United States, 1999-2005, 446.0
No. 8, Aranxta Sanchez-Vicario, Spain, 1989-1998, 455.5
No. 7, Evonne Goolagong-Cawley, Australia, 1971-1980, 567.0
No. 6, Billie Jean King, United States, 1968-1975, 609.5
No. 5, Margaret Smith-Court, Australia, 1968-1973, 646.0
No. 4, Monica Seles, Yugoslavia, 1990-1998, 684.0
No. 3, Chris Evert, United States, 1973-1988, 948.5
No. 2, Martina Navratilova, Czechoslovakia, 1975-1994, 1,190.0
No. 1, Steffi Graf, Germany, 1987-1999, 1,212.0

In the men's tournament, the seeds stack up this way:

No. 32, Manuel Orantes, Argentina, 1974-1975, 109.0
No. 31, Andy Roddick, United States, 2003-2005, 111.5
No. 30, Johan Kriek, South Africa, 1981-1982, 113.0
No. 29, Michael Stich, Germany, 1991-1996, 120.0
No. 28, Goran Ivanisevic, Croatia, 1992-2001, 131.0
No. 27, Sergei Bruguera, Spain, 1993-1997, 133.0
No. 26, Michael Chang, United States, 1988-1996, 134.0
No. 25, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Russia, 1996-2000, 139.5
No. 24, Pat Cash, Australia, 1987-1988, 141.0
No. 23, Stan Smith, United States, 1971-1972, 150.5
No. 22, Pat Rafter, Australia, 1997-2001, 154.0
No. 21, Gustavo Kuerten, 1997-2001, 166.0
No. 20, Illie Nastase, Romania, 1971-1976, 188.5
No. 18 (tie), Marat Safin, Russia, 2000-2005, 191.0
No. 18, (tie), Lleyton Hewitt, Australia, 2001-2005, 191.0
No. 17, Arthur Ashe, United States, 1968-1975, 212.0
No. 16, Jan Kodes, Czechoslovakia, 1970-1973, 228.0
No. 15, Roger Federer, United States, 2003-2005, 241.0
No. 14, Ken Rosewall, Australia, 1968-1974, 290.5
No. 13, John Newcombe, Australia, 1969-1976, 304.5
No. 12, Guillermo Vilas, Argentina, 1975-1982, 323.0
No. 11, Jim Courier, United States, 1991-1993, 334.5
No. 10, Rod Laver, Australia, 1968-1969, 351.0
No. 9, Stephan Edberg, Sweden, 1985-1993, 406.0
No. 8, Boris Becker, Germany, 1985-1996, 423.5
No. 7, Andre Agassi, United States, 1990-2003, 462.5
No. 6, Mats Wilander, Sweden, 1982-1988, 471.5
No. 5, John McEnroe, United States, 1979-1985, 542.5
No. 4, Jimmy Connors, United States, 1974-1984, 594.5
No. 3, Ivan Lendl, Czechoslovakia, 1981-1991, 619.5
No. 2, Bjorn Borg, Sweden, 1974-1981, 648.5
No. 1, Pete Sampras, United States, 1990-2002, 656.5

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