Sunday, July 17, 2005

Tiger moves into No. 2 on all-time golfer list

At the end of 1996 I was riding with a friend to attend our annual golf fantasy league draft. Yes, there are such things. My friend was a sports nut from college, and I was an assistant sports editor of a small Wisconsin newspaper. Obviously, most of the discussion was sports-related.

After a while, the talk turned to Sports Illustrated’s choice of Tiger Woods as its Sportsman of the Year. I thought it was a terrible pick. That summer Michael Johnson had turned in one of the greatest Olympic performances in decades, perhaps on a par with Jesse Owens’ performance back in 1936. Track and Field may not be much of a fan favorite in the United States, but the Olympics is a world-wide stage.

My friend, who ran the golf league and still does, thought Woods was the right choice and agreed with SI’s reasoning. The magazine hadn’t picked Woods for what he accomplished in 1996 but for what he might accomplish. My buddy said Woods would be to golf what Michael Jordan was to the NBA.

Well, it’s 2005 and I’ll admit he was right on that account. But the talk that night also turned to Woods’ long-stated goal to match and surpass all of the records of Jack Nicklaus. That was not a small goal. Nicklaus was a colossus in his sport, perhaps more so at that time than any other. Old-timers in baseball can argue the virtues of Babe Ruth versus Willie Mays and Hank Aaron with Barry Bonds making a sudden entrance into the picture. Fans of forgotten Negro League stars can even, thanks to tireless research by groups such as the Society for American Baseball Research, throw names such as Josh Gibson, Satchel Paige and Oscar Charleston into the discussion.

Football fans not only argue eras but positions as well. Was Jim Brown a greater player than Johnny Unitas? Was Brown as good as an all-around player as Walter Payton? Did any player dominate his position more than receiver Jerry Rice or outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor? ESPN once chose Bears middle linebacker Dick Butkus as the best ever. A Sports Illustrated writer even made an argument for old Cleveland Browns star Marion Motley.

Basketball fans have their Michael Jordan versus Wilt Chamberlain versus Bill Russell arguments. A book published in 2004 by a long-time respected stat man made a different choice – placing Shaquille O’Neal at the top of the list.

Hockey has Wayne Gretzky or Gordie Howe; tennis has Pete Sampras, Bjorn Borg or Rod Laver, Martina Navritilova or Steffi Graf; even horse racing has Secretariat versus Man ‘O War.
But golf in 1996 was a simple argument, who was the second greatest player after Nicklaus? Sure, every once in a while I’d read an argument about why perhaps Bobby Jones or Ben Hogan should be considered Nicklaus’ equal, but no one seriously argued any player was better.

Nicklaus’ accomplishments simply towered over all others.

* Eighteen professional majors and two U.S. amateurs. The next closest number, if you count the U.S. and British amateurs, was Jones with 13 then Walter Hagen with 11.
* Nineteen times he was a runner up in the four most coveted tournaments. Seventy-four times he finished in the top 10, including one in 1998 at the Masters at the age of 58.

He won his first professional in 1962 and last in 1986. He swallowed whole the careers of Lee Trevino, Raymond Floyd, Hubert Green, Tom Weiskopf and dozens of others.

I wondered after that night, and especially after Woods made a mockery of the competition in the 1997 Masters, just what it would take for Tiger to surpass the Golden Bear. Was it simply a matter of winning more majors?

Of course, I’m not the first to take on a ranking. Robert McCord published a book ranking the top 100 men and top 40 women. Sporting News chimed in with its 50 Greatest Golfers by Reid Spencer, a golf writer who has covered the sport for more than 25 years.

Spencer did not use any kind of statistical analysis. He just used his judgment in creating the list. Spencer’s work was notable because he handed the title of greatest golfer to Woods, dropping Nicklaus to second even though Tiger still trailed the Bear by 12 professional majors at the time and 11 majors overall if you count his U.S. Amateurs, which Woods always does. Spencer’s No. 3 was Ben Hogan, Bobby Jones is No. 4 and Arnold Palmer sits at No. 5. Spencer seems to be a bit rough on non-U.S. golfers. Gary Player comes in at No. 8, ahead of English star Harry Vardon. Turn of the century golfer U.S. golfer Willie Anderson is an interestingly high No. 12, while Seve Ballesteros only manages a spot at No. 16. Francis Ouimet, a winner of two U.S. Amateurs and the historic 1913 U.S. Open is No. 17 while Nick Faldo is No. 19.

For my list, I decided to create the equivalent of the all-time golf fantasy league. I went back and gave points to every player who finished in the top 10 of a four-round major (thus eliminating all of the British Opens before 1892 and the U.S. Opens before 1898). I based the point system on our fantasy league totals. A player who finished second received nine, third eight and on down. But a player who won the major received 20 points plus bonus points for margin of victory, meaning Nicklaus’ greatest romp – the 1980 PGA where he won by seven shots – was worth 27 points.

One can argue the gap between first and second should not be so wide. But I argue the difference between winning and coming in second in majors is enormous. Colin Montgomerie, as of this writing, has won zero professional majors. He’d come tantalizingly close, losing playoffs in the 1994 U.S. Open and 1995 PGA, finishing a shot behind Ernie Els in the 1997 U.S. Open and just recently finishing second to Woods in the 2005 British Open. But close doesn’t count when it comes to golf greatness. The gap in Monty’s resume overshadows his dominance of both the European tour and the Ryder Cup.

I thought about awarding points for victories in other events, especially national championships like the Australian, Canadian and French opens, and the near majors such as the Players Championship. But to me, that muddied the waters. David Duval won several big tournaments but it was his win at the British Open that was regarded as his breakthrough. In the end, to me, they are the only ones that count when discussing the all-time greatest players.

My next decision was what to do with the two major amateur events – the U.S. and the British. Today, no one seriously argues either of these events are on the same level as the professional majors or a number of the next-tier events. But these two championships were recognized majors until the 1960s and in the early 20th century the top amateurs were thought to be better than the top professionals. Simply excluding them would seriously devalue two top players – Bobby Jones and Harold Hilton. After much thought, I decided to award the winners of the two amateurs 10 points, much less than a professional major even in the days of Jones and Hilton. My thought was that even though the amateurs carried equal prestige back in the day, it still was easier for Jones to win a U.S. Amateur knowing Gene Sarazen and Walter Hagen couldn’t play than it was to win the U.S. Open where everyone was eligible. The second place finisher in an amateur received five points and the medalists received one.

With the numbering systems in place, I gave the ranking one final tweak. Studying baseball over the years, I’ve always struggled with comparing a player who was good for a number of years versus a player who dominated for a few and then faded away. I’ve always called it the Carlton Fisk versus Gary Carter argument.

Fisk was an often injured catcher early in his career who defied history and continued to catch until he was 45 years old. By playing so long he set a number of marks for catchers and went into the Hall of Fame in 2000 on his first try. Carter was out of baseball when he was 38 and really was through as a top flight player when he was 34. He finally got into the Hall of Fame in 2003 after coming up short in the voting for a couple of years.

Here’s how the two stack up in career numbers:
Stat Carter Fisk
Games 2,296 2,499
Batting average .262 .269
Slugging percentage .439 .457
Hits 2,092 2,356
Home runs 324 376
Runs 1,025 1,276
Runs batted in 1,225 1,330

But let’s take a look at of the best five seasons for each player.

Carter’s five best seasons were 1977, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985. Fisk’s were 1972, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1985. If you look at the averages for those seasons, Carter fairs much better.
Stat Carter Fisk
At bats 554 519
Batting average .284 .283
Slugging percentage .500 .506
Hits 157 147
Home runs 30 26
Runs 82 89
Runs batted in 98 89
Walks 65 59

Personally, I’ve always favored someone who dominated for a short time over someone who was just good for a long period of time. If I were starting a baseball team and I had my choice between Fisk or Carter (assuming of course Pudge Rodriguez and Johnny Bench weren’t available), I’d take Carter.

For my ranking, I could rank players both ways. I could just total the points over an entire career – which would favor players such as Gene Sarazen and Sam Snead, who were solid contenders for decades. Or I could use a system I use in baseball rankings, where I total up the points from a player’s top year, three best years, five best years, 10 best years and then career points. Under this system, one great season is equal to a player’s entire career. This system favors Bobby Jones, who quit competitive golf at age 27, and Woods, who strung together perhaps the best stretch of golf ever in 1999, 2000 and 2001.

I compromised and mixed the two to get the rankings that follow. Finally, I wondered how deep should my list run. Everyone does a top 50 or a top 100. Golf has its own numbering systems so I settled on Golf’s Greatest Playday. Basically, if I were holding a one-day event and had 18 foursomes ready for a shot-gun start, here’s who I would according to how they’ve performed in the events that over time have evolved into the most important titles in the world of golf.

On the 18th tee
Rank, Player, Country, Years, Points
72. Charles Evans Jr., United States, 1909-1927, 162.67
71. Sandy Herd, Scotland, 1892-1927, 163.31
70. David Graham, Australia, 1975-1990, 163.70
69. Tony Jacklin, England, 1967-1972, 164.50

On th 17th tee
68. Tommy Bolt, United States, 1952-1971, 166.63
67. Doug Ford, United States, 1955-1962, 168.50
66. Harry Cooper, Eng/U.S., 1923-1942, 169.50
65. Jack Burke Jr., United States, 1951-1965, 169.95

On the 16th tee
64. Davis Love III, United States, 1995-2005, 169.96
63. Curtis Strange, United States, 1980-1995, 170.17
62. Johnny Farrell, United States, 1922-1937, 170.46
61. Larry Nelson, United States, 1979-1991, 173.75

On the 15th tee
60. Jim Ferrier, Aus/U.S., 1936-1964, 176.50
59. Jose Maria Olazabul, Spain, 1984-2005, 181.70
58. Gene Littler, United States, 1953-1979, 184.00
57. Lanny Wadkins, United States, 1970-1993, 185.50

On the 14th tee
56. Fred Couples, United States, 1980-2005, 186.70
55. Lawson Little, United States, 1934-1951, 187.33
54. Tom Kite, United States, 1970-2001, 187.94
53. Mark O'Meara, United States, 1979-2003, 188.70

On the 13th tee
52. Hubert Green, United States, 1974-1989, 190.00
51. Henry Picard, United States, 1932-1950, 192.44
50. Alex Smith, Scot/US, 1898-1921, 193.69
49. Horton Smith, United States, 1928-1954, 198.31

On the 12th tee
48. Tommy Armour, Scot/US, 1925-1937, 202.63
47. Ted Ray, England, 1902-1925, 204.88
46. Bernhard Langer, Germany, 1981-2005, 209.58
45. Jock Hutchison, Scot/U.S., 1908-1928, 210.25

On the 11th tee
44. Henry Cotton, England, 1927-1958, 210.92
43. Payne Stewart, United States, 1985-1999, 216.50
42. Denny Shute, United States, 1928-1950, 219.25
41. Vijay Singh, Fiji, 1993-2005, 220.11

On the 10th tee
40. Paul Runyan, United States, 1931-1951, 221.13
39. Johnny Miller, United States, 1966-1985, 221.38
38. Harold Hilton, England, 1892-1913, 221.50
37. Lloyd Mangrum, United States, 1940-1956, 221.60

On the 9th tee
36. Tom Weiskopf, United States, 1969-1982, 222.43
35. Willie Anderson Jr., Scot/U.S., 1898-1908, 223.50
34. Leo Diegel, United States, 1920-1933, 235.56
33. Ralph Guldahl, United States, 1933-1941, 237.13

On the 8th tee
32. Hale Irwin, United States, 1973-1993, 243.38
31. Ben Crenshaw, United States, 1972-1995, 243.52
30. Phil Mickelson, United States, 1990-2005, 249.56
29. Billy Casper, United States, 1958-1976, 251.21

On the 7th tee
28. Craig Wood, United States, 1929-1944, 251.94
27. Cary Middlecoff, United States, 1948-1959, 252.50
26. Julius Boros, United States, 1950-1973, 252.92
25. Bobby Locke, South Africa, 1936-1957, 259.75

On the 6th tee
24. Jimmy Demaret, United States, 1938-1962, 263.44
23. Nick Price, Zimbabwe, 1982-2005, 267.98
22. Peter Thomson, Australia, 1951-1971, 277.10
21. Ernie Els, South Africa, 1992-2004, 279.90

On the 5th tee
20. Jim Barnes, Eng/U.S., 1913-1930, 301.11
19. James Braid, Scotland, 1894-1914, 301.63
18. Raymond Floyd, United States, 1965-1994, 309.32
17. Greg Norman, Australia, 1979-1999, 316.82

On the 4th tee
16. Seve Ballesteros, Spain, 1976-1991, 321.08
15. Lee Trevino, United States, 1967-1986, 334.54
14. J.H. Taylor, England, 1893-1925, 348.75
13. Harry Vardon, England, 1894-1922, 351.50

On the 3rd tee
12. Byron Nelson, United States, 1935-1955, 367.54
11. Nick Faldo, England, 1978-2003, 401.50
10. Gene Sarazen, United States, 1921-1956, 458.63
9. Sam Snead, United States, 1937-1974, 464.41

On the 2nd tee
8. Bobby Jones, United States, 1919-1930, 477.25
7. Gary Player, South Africa, 1956-1984, 477.43
6. Tom Watson, United States, 1974-2000, 493.36
5. Arnold Palmer, United States, 1954-1977, 515.33

On the 1st tee
4. Walter Hagen, United States, 1913-1940, 517.29
3. Ben Hogan, United States, 1939-1967, 583.95
2. Tiger Woods, United States, 1994-2005, 609.08
1. Jack Nicklaus, United States, 1959-1998, 858.59

No comments: