Thursday, July 03, 2008

NBA's top 100 -- debating Duncan


If you've read my earlier posts with the top 20 players at each position, you may have already tried to figure out my top 100 men's pro basketball players.

But when compiling my top 100, I adjust the list by position. Many of the things statistically tracked are just easier for centers or power forwards. They play down low and get more rebounds. They naturally block more shots and, being closer to the rim, shoot a higher percentage.

But a team with five centers is not going to win against a balanced squad. Sure, Shaq, Wilt, Kareem, Hakeem and Bill Russell will pound you down low. But who would bring the ball up the floor? Who would hit the outside jumpers to free up the lane?

To even out statistical biases, I have a position adjustment that takes the top point totals from the five greatest players at each position and averages them out.

Centers had the highest total and receive no position points. Power forwards had the second highest and received 380.4 points. The next highest was small forward, then point guards and finally shooting guards.

The NBA of the past 10 years has been filled with great power forwards, point guards and shooting guards. Centers and small forwards have been rare. So the position points for power forwards, point guards and shooting guards have gotten smaller.

That means players long since retired can switch places in the standings, which is what happened to Bill Russell and Karl Malone. The continued greatness of Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan have cut down on the power forward bonus points, knocking him below Bill Russell. Considering Russell's teams won 11 NBA titles and Malone's won none, this didn't keep me up at night.

Remember, with players such as Russell and Chamberlain, the NBA didn't keep steals and blocked shots until the end or after their careers. I estimated those stats for old-time stars based on All-Pro and MVP votes versus blocks and steals totals for stars in the past 30 years. This likely vastly underestimated their totals, but it's the best I can do without actual statistics.

Speaking of Duncan, who is in the title. As you'll see below, I have him passing Larry Bird for No. 5 player all-time. I know that'll rankle Celtics fans. But Duncan's teams have won four titles without a player -- other than the fading David Robinson -- likely to make the basketball hall of fame. He has had very, very good teammates in Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and Robert Horry. But these players are not Dennis Johnson, Kevin McHale and even Bill Walton.

Without further discussion, here are the 100 greatest pro men's basketball players:

Rank, player, years, points
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1969-1989, 22675.9
2. Wilt Chamberlain, 1959-1973, 21728.5
3. Michael Jordan, 1984-2003, 21397.6
4. Julius Erving, 1971-1987, 20665.5
5. Tim Duncan, 1997-2008, 19828.1
6. Larry Bird, 1979-1992, 19823.6
7. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1984-2002, 19820.9
8. Bill Russell, 1956-1969, 19741.4
9. Karl Malone 1985-2004, 19731.4
10. Oscar Robertson, 1960-1974, 19288.4
11. Magic Johnson, 1979-1996, 19183.0
12. Bob Cousy, 1950-1970, 19057.0
13. Kevin Garnett, 1996-2008, 19037.7
14. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992-2008, 18894.9
15. Bob Pettit, 1954-1965, 18627.9
16. Jerry West, 1960-1974, 18477.6
17. David Robinson, 1989-2003, 18417.4
18. Moses Malone, 1974-1995, 18098.5
19. George Mikan, 1948-1956, 18049.0
20. Dolph Schayes, 1949-1964, 18028.8
21. Elgin Baylor, 1958-1972, 17985.5
22. Kobe Bryant, 1996-2008, 17933.1
23. Elvin Hayes, 1968-1984, 17608.3
24. John Stockton, 1984-2003, 17474.0
25. Charles Barkley, 1984-2000, 17363.2
26. Gary Payton, 1990-2007, 17353.0
27. Artis Gilmore, 1971-1988, 17249.4
28. Rick Barry, 1965-1980, 17091.2
29. Scottie Pippen, 1987-2004, 17017.7
30. Jason Kidd, 1994-2008, 16876.6
31. George Gervin, 1972-1986, 16842.6
32. John Havlicek, 1962-1978, 16821.9
33. Pat Ewing, 1985-2002, 16568.1
34. Allen Iverson, 1996-2008, 16481.4
35. Dirk Nowitzki, 1998-2008, 16281.9
36. Isiah Thomas, 1981-1993, 16267.8
37. Clyde Drexler, 1983-1998, 16123.7
38. George McGinnis, 1971-1982, 15878.9
39. Walt Frazier, 1967-1980, 15677.9
40. Tracey McGrady, 1997-2008, 15567.4
41. Steve Nash, 1996-2008, 15404.1
42. Paul Arizin, 1950-1962, 15296.5
43. Bob McAdoo, 1972-1986, 15283.7
44. Connie Hawkins, 1967-1976, 15268.0
45. Billy Cunningham, 1965-1976, 15220.8
46. Dave Cowens, 1970-1983, 15084.4
47. Dominique Wilkins, 1982-1999, 14992.9
48. Alex English, 1976-1991, 14918.0
49. Dan Issel, 1970-1985, 14668.7
50. Chris Webber, 1993-2008, 14613.4
51. Bob Lanier, 1970-1984, 14551.1
52. Mo Cheeks, 1978-1993, 14376.2
53. Mel Daniels, 1967-1977, 14369.7
54. Tim Hardaway, 1989-2003, 14350.3
55. Bill Sharman, 1950-1961, 14349.0
56. Hal Greer, 1958-1973, 14305.9
57. Dennis Johnson, 1976-1990, 14304.3
58. Robert Parish, 1976-1997, 14289.3
59. Willis Reed, 1964-1974, 14256.7
60. Gus Williams, 1975-1987, 14189.3
61. Kevin Johnson, 1987-2000, 14085.2
62. Vince Carter, 1998-2008, 13933.2
63. Jerry Lucas, 1963-1974, 13907.4
64. LeBron James, 2003-2008, 13859.0
65. Grant Hill, 1994-2008, 13858.4
66. Kevin McHale, 1980-1993, 13749.9
67. Cliff Hagan, 1956-1970, 13735.1
68. Alonzo Mourning, 1992-2008, 13702.7
69. Dave Bing, 1966-1978, 13700.1
70. Walter Davis, 1977-1992, 13665.8
71. Tiny Archibald, 1970-1984, 13576.5
72. Shawn Marion, 1999-2008, 13566.5
73. Ray Allen, 1996-2008, 13558.4
74. Nate Thurmond, 1963-1977, 13536.0
75. Lenny Wilkens, 1960-1975, 13514.3
76. Bobby Jones, 1974-1986, 13496.5
77. Sydney Moncrief, 1979-1991, 13473.1
78. Terry Cummings, 1982-2000, 13387.5
79. Bob Dandridge, 1969-1982, 13377.1
80. Norm Nixon, 1977-1989, 13372.3
81. James Worthy, 1982-1994, 13356.6
82. David Thompson, 1975-1984, 13279.6
83. Wes Unseld, 1968-1981, 13209.0
84. Marques Johnson, 1977-1990, 13195.5
85. Spencer Haywood, 1969-1983, 13131.2
86. Reggie Miller, 1987-2005, 13094.2
87. Dave DeBusschere, 1962-1974, 13025.8
88. Adrian Dantley, 1976-1991, 13007.4
89. Gail Goodrich, 1965-1979, 13001.2
90. Elton Brand, 1999-2008, 12988.9
91. Dikembe Mutombo, 1991-2008, 12983.7
92. Lou Dampier, 1967-1979, 12901.0
93. Maurice Lucas, 1974-1988, 12898.2
94. Sam Jones, 1957-1969, 12868.2
95. Buck Williams, 1981-1998, 12837.0
96. Walt Bellamy, 1961-1975, 12718.2
97. Chris Mullin, 1985-2001, 12703.0
98. Latrell Sprewell, 1992-2005, 12699.8
99. Bernard King, 1977-1993, 12641.3
100. Alvin Robertson, 1984-1996, 12632.2

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