You hear all the time how expansion has diluted the pitching in the major leagues. People wistfully point to the years when there were just 16 teams and talk about how tough Babe Ruth had it in his day.
The truth, though, today it is nearly twice as hard to reach the major leagues as it was for the Babe.
In 1920, Ruth's first season with the New York Yankees, the Census Bureau totaled the U.S. population at 106 million. The male population through the decades has roughly been about 49 percent so there were about 52 million males in the U.S. at that time.
There were 16 teams in the major leagues with 25-man rosters, meaning at any one time, there were 400 major league jobs.
Of course, in 1920, blacks weren't allowed in the major leagues, meaning about 5.2 million males out of the original 52 million were ineligible.
So essentially, you had 400 jobs for about 47.8 million white men and boys which equals 117,000 men per major league roster spot.
Today, there are 30 major league teams and 750 major league positions, so the number of openings has nearly doubled.
The U.S. population, though, nearly tripled. In 2000, there were 281 million people in the U.S., including 34.7 million blacks, which now can play in the major leagues. Again estimating the male population at 49 percent, there were roughly 137.9 million males eligible for those 750 big league jobs. That equals about 184,000 per big league roster spot.
The expansion in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, actually helped bring that number down. The toughest Census year to reach the bigs, when looking at just the U.S. population, was 1960 when there was still just the 16 teams and 400 positions available for a male (both black and white) population of 87.9 million. That meant there was one major league spot for every 220,000 males.
Today, if you wanted to make it as easy to reach the majors as it was back in the Babe's day, you'd need to add 16 more teams. At 46 major league teams, there'd be a spot for every 119,900 men.
Of course, the major leagues are more international than ever before and taking that into consideration shows it's never been more difficult to reach the bigs.
Here is a list of the percentage of international players making their big league debuts in each decade. The 2000s data is through the 2005 season.
Year, total new players, international players, pctg.
1900s -- 1,081 new players, 51 foreign players, 4.7 percent.
1910s -- 1,534 new players, 40 foreign players, 2.6 percent.
1920s -- 1,203 new players, 17 foreign players, 1.4 percent.
1930s -- 1,037 new players, 19 foreign players, 1.8 percent.
1940s -- 1,166 new players, 50 foreign players, 4.3 percent.
(Color bar falls in 1947)
1950s -- 1,076 new players, 84 foreign players, 7.8 percent.
(Boston Red Sox last team to integrate in 1958)
1960s -- 1,246 new players, 139 foreign players, 11.2 percent.
1970s -- 1,312 new players, 138 foreign players, 10.5 percent.
1980s -- 1,457 new players, 191 foreign players, 13.1 percent.
1990s -- 1,877 new players, 418 foreign players, 22.3 percent.
2000s -- 1,200 new players through 2005, 320 foreign players, 26.7 percent.
In 1920, major league players almost entirely came from the U.S., Canada and Cuba. If you added the white populations of Canada -- which was 90 percent white -- and Cuba -- just 39 percent white -- to the U.S., you had 51.2 million men for 400 positions or one roster spot for every 127,948 males.
The 1930s saw the beginning of the Venezuelan influx. Once the color line fell, players from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic -- both overwhelmingly black countries -- began making the majors in the 1960s and 1970s. Mexicans didn't start signing with major league organizations in any real numbers until the 1970s and the 1990s and this decade have seen the coming of the Japanese.
Today, the 30 teams and 750 major league spots are being fought over by players from seven predominant countries with a combined male population of 287.3 million. That's one big league roster spot for every 383,170 males.
To get that number back to the ratio of 127,948 in Babe's day of 1920, you'd need 90 teams.
The major leagues have never been more major.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Monday, October 09, 2006
Babe Ruth was a myth
As you can see by my posts, I love sports history and trying to quantify who were the greatest players in various sports. I have a system for baseball, but thanks to the fact they no longer produce the Baseball Encyclopedia, where I get all of the fielding stats, it's taking a while to finish the tables to produce it.
When I am finished, you'll quickly notice there will be some players missing. You won't see Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson and Babe Ruth. In fact, none of the players who compiled the bulk of their stats before 1947 will be included.
I'm a huge Negro Leagues fan -- I have about 20 books on the subject ranging from a history of the Puerto Rican leagues to most of John Holway's works -- and I fully support a call Holway made in one of the first books of his I read. All statistics before Jackie Robinson should carry an asterisk or be set aside as non-integrated records.
Really, do you think Cobb would have hit .367 in his career if you took out the weakest outfielders in the American League and replaced them with speedsters such as Oscar Charleston and Spotswood Poles to chase balls in the gap?
Would Cobb even have been the greatest centerfielder considering Charleston was likely just as fast and had much more power?
How high would Stan Musial's lifetime batting average been if you removed Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente from the majors and replaced them with AAA white outfielders?
I pick on Ruth in the headline of the post just because he seems to generate so much passion. I wrote a column on this subject for the newspaper I work for and received phone calls where the four letter words outnumbered the non-four letter words.
I consider Ruth a great player and an overall good guy. He, unlike Cobb, barnstormed often with Negro Leaguers seeing it as a way to make some extra money for himself and his opponents. There are legions of stories of his praising Negro Leaguers.
But what are we really to make of his numbers? He compiled them against all white players from the U.S. except for a handful of white Cubans at a time when scouts rarely headed west of the Great Plains. Indeed, the Pacific Coast League was considered to be very nearly major league and many players chose to stay in the PCL rather than travel east for the major leagues.
Really, all we know about Ruth was that he was the greatest white right fielder of the east coast.
Why even bring it up now? Sports Illustrated just published its all-time team. It included: Lou Gehrig, Lefty Grove, Joe DiMaggio, Cy Young, Ty Cobb, Christy Mathewson, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson and Honus Wagner.
It did not include a single player who played a majority of his years in the Negro Leagues.
That's really a joke. Look at three on the list, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Jackie Robinson. They came directly from the Negro Leagues with short stays in the minors.
If you were to pick an all-time team and insisted on including pre-1947 players, then Oscar Charleston should replace either DiMaggio or Cobb, Satchel Paige needs to be on the list ahead of either Mathewson or Young and Gibson should replace Johnny Bench or Yogi Berra. And I say this as a life-long Reds fan who grew up watching Bench play.
In the following posts, I'll add stats to support the arguments.
When I am finished, you'll quickly notice there will be some players missing. You won't see Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson and Babe Ruth. In fact, none of the players who compiled the bulk of their stats before 1947 will be included.
I'm a huge Negro Leagues fan -- I have about 20 books on the subject ranging from a history of the Puerto Rican leagues to most of John Holway's works -- and I fully support a call Holway made in one of the first books of his I read. All statistics before Jackie Robinson should carry an asterisk or be set aside as non-integrated records.
Really, do you think Cobb would have hit .367 in his career if you took out the weakest outfielders in the American League and replaced them with speedsters such as Oscar Charleston and Spotswood Poles to chase balls in the gap?
Would Cobb even have been the greatest centerfielder considering Charleston was likely just as fast and had much more power?
How high would Stan Musial's lifetime batting average been if you removed Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente from the majors and replaced them with AAA white outfielders?
I pick on Ruth in the headline of the post just because he seems to generate so much passion. I wrote a column on this subject for the newspaper I work for and received phone calls where the four letter words outnumbered the non-four letter words.
I consider Ruth a great player and an overall good guy. He, unlike Cobb, barnstormed often with Negro Leaguers seeing it as a way to make some extra money for himself and his opponents. There are legions of stories of his praising Negro Leaguers.
But what are we really to make of his numbers? He compiled them against all white players from the U.S. except for a handful of white Cubans at a time when scouts rarely headed west of the Great Plains. Indeed, the Pacific Coast League was considered to be very nearly major league and many players chose to stay in the PCL rather than travel east for the major leagues.
Really, all we know about Ruth was that he was the greatest white right fielder of the east coast.
Why even bring it up now? Sports Illustrated just published its all-time team. It included: Lou Gehrig, Lefty Grove, Joe DiMaggio, Cy Young, Ty Cobb, Christy Mathewson, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson and Honus Wagner.
It did not include a single player who played a majority of his years in the Negro Leagues.
That's really a joke. Look at three on the list, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Jackie Robinson. They came directly from the Negro Leagues with short stays in the minors.
If you were to pick an all-time team and insisted on including pre-1947 players, then Oscar Charleston should replace either DiMaggio or Cobb, Satchel Paige needs to be on the list ahead of either Mathewson or Young and Gibson should replace Johnny Bench or Yogi Berra. And I say this as a life-long Reds fan who grew up watching Bench play.
In the following posts, I'll add stats to support the arguments.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
Pro basketball's greatest players: The top 60
Just in time for the beginning of NBA training camps, here are the 60 greatest players based on a system that weights by position, ranks players versus the league leaders and ranks playoff performance based against their own season performance.
Each season that's played, I add a player to the list so now we have 60 rather than last year's 59. Two of the old Big Three in Dallas leaped onto the list.
Player, Years, Raw total, Pos. Adj., Final Total
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1969-1989, 22721.5, 0.0, 22721.5
2. Wilt Chamberlain, 1959-1973, 21838.9, 0.0, 21838.9
3. Michael Jordan, 1984-2003, 20809.7, 651.5, 21461.2
4. Julius Erving, 1971-1987, 20247.8, 502.9, 20750.7
5. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1984-2002, 19935.7, 0.0, 19935.7
6. Larry Bird, 1979-1992, 19386.9, 502.9, 19889.8
7. Karl Malone, 1985-2004, 19407.7, 418.0, 19825.7
8. Bill Russell, 1956-1969, 19765.2, 0.0, 19765.2
9. Oscar Robertson, 1960-1974, 18753.0, 523.6, 19276.6
10. Magic Johnson, 1979-1996, 18692.0, 523.6, 19215.6
11. Tim Duncan, 1997-2006, 18769.3, 418.0, 19187.3
12. Bob Cousy, 1950-1970, 18554.9, 523.6, 19078.5
13. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992-2006, 18854.3, 0.0, 18854.3
14. Kevin Garnett, 1996-2006, 18354.6, 418.0, 18772.6
15. Bob Pettit, 1954-1965, 18297.2, 418.0, 18715.2
16. Jerry West, 1960-1974, 17946.0, 651.5, 18597.5
17. David Robinson, 1989-2003, 18490.3, 0.0, 18490.3
18. Moses Malone, 1974-1995, 18246.1, 0.0, 18246.1
19. George Mikan, 1948-1956, 18123.1, 0.0, 18123.1
20. Dolph Schayes, 1949-1964, 17694.8, 418.0, 18112.8
21. Elgin Baylor, 1958-1972, 17552.2, 502.9, 18055.1
22. Elvin Hayes, 1968-1984, 17347.0, 418.0, 17765.0
23. Charles Barkley, 1984-2000, 17139.1, 418.0, 17557.1
24. John Stockton, 1984-2003, 17006.1, 523.6, 17529.7
25. Gary Payton, 1990-2005, 16878.0, 523.6, 17401.6
26. Artis Gilmore, 1971-1988, 17375.7, 0.0, 17375.7
27. Rick Barry, 1965-1980, 16677.6, 502.9, 17180.5
28. Scottie Pippen, 1987-2004, 16536.3, 502.9, 17039.2
29. George Gervin, 1972-1986, 16304.3, 651.5, 16955.8
30. John Havlicek, 1962-1978, 16248.4, 502.9, 16751.3
31. Kobe Bryant, 1996-2006, 16032.8, 651.5, 16684.3
32. Jason Kidd, 1994-2006, 16096.0, 523.6, 16619.6
33. Pat Ewing, 1985-2002, 16609.2, 0.0, 16609.2
34. Isiah Thomas, 1981-1993, 15847.2, 523.6, 16370.8
35. Allen Iverson, 1996-2006, 15825.1, 523.6, 16348.7
36. Clyde Drexler, 1983-1998, 15594.0, 651.5, 16245.5
37. George McGinnis, 1971-1982, 15661.4, 418.0, 16079.4
38. Walt Frazier, 1967-1980, 15210.5, 523.6, 15734.1
39. Bob McAdoo, 1972-1986, 15574, 0.0, 15574.0
40. Connie Hawkins, 1961-1976, 14956.0, 502.9, 15458.9
41. Paul Arizin, 1950-1962, 14906.3, 502.9, 15409.2
42. Billy Cunningham, 1965-1976, 14869.1, 502.9, 15372.0
43. Dave Cowens, 1970-1983, 15258.6, 0.0, 15258.6
44. Dominique Wilkins, 1982-1999, 14542.8, 502.9, 15045.7
45. Dirk Nowitzki, 1998-2006, 14610.8, 418.0, 15028.8
46. Alex English, 1976-1991, 14486.0, 502.9, 14988.9
47. Chris Webber, 1993-2006, 14344.0, 418.0, 14762.0
48. Dan Issel, 1970-1985, 14331.7, 418.0, 14749.7
49. Bob Lanier, 1970-1984, 14649.0, 0.0, 14649.0
50. Mel Daniels, 1967-1977, 14557.3, 0.0, 14557.3
51. Tim Hardaway, 1989-2003, 13990.9, 523.6, 14514.5
52. Willis Reed, 1964-1974, 14458.4, 0.0, 14458.4
53. Bill Sharman, 1950-1961, 13802.7, 651.5, 14454.2
54. Mo Cheeks, 1978-1993, 13909.0, 523.6, 14432.6
55. Hal Greer, 1958-1973, 13769.6, 651.5, 14421.1
56. Dennis Johnson, 1976-1990, 13731.9, 651.5, 14383.4
57. Robert Parish, 1976-1997, 14340.4, 0.0, 14340.4
58. Gus Williams, 1975-1987, 13733.0, 523.6, 14256.6
59. Kevin Johnson, 1987-2000, 13653.7, 523.6, 14177.3
60. Steve Nash, 1996-2006, 13497.4, 523.6, 14021.0
Each season that's played, I add a player to the list so now we have 60 rather than last year's 59. Two of the old Big Three in Dallas leaped onto the list.
Player, Years, Raw total, Pos. Adj., Final Total
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1969-1989, 22721.5, 0.0, 22721.5
2. Wilt Chamberlain, 1959-1973, 21838.9, 0.0, 21838.9
3. Michael Jordan, 1984-2003, 20809.7, 651.5, 21461.2
4. Julius Erving, 1971-1987, 20247.8, 502.9, 20750.7
5. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1984-2002, 19935.7, 0.0, 19935.7
6. Larry Bird, 1979-1992, 19386.9, 502.9, 19889.8
7. Karl Malone, 1985-2004, 19407.7, 418.0, 19825.7
8. Bill Russell, 1956-1969, 19765.2, 0.0, 19765.2
9. Oscar Robertson, 1960-1974, 18753.0, 523.6, 19276.6
10. Magic Johnson, 1979-1996, 18692.0, 523.6, 19215.6
11. Tim Duncan, 1997-2006, 18769.3, 418.0, 19187.3
12. Bob Cousy, 1950-1970, 18554.9, 523.6, 19078.5
13. Shaquille O'Neal, 1992-2006, 18854.3, 0.0, 18854.3
14. Kevin Garnett, 1996-2006, 18354.6, 418.0, 18772.6
15. Bob Pettit, 1954-1965, 18297.2, 418.0, 18715.2
16. Jerry West, 1960-1974, 17946.0, 651.5, 18597.5
17. David Robinson, 1989-2003, 18490.3, 0.0, 18490.3
18. Moses Malone, 1974-1995, 18246.1, 0.0, 18246.1
19. George Mikan, 1948-1956, 18123.1, 0.0, 18123.1
20. Dolph Schayes, 1949-1964, 17694.8, 418.0, 18112.8
21. Elgin Baylor, 1958-1972, 17552.2, 502.9, 18055.1
22. Elvin Hayes, 1968-1984, 17347.0, 418.0, 17765.0
23. Charles Barkley, 1984-2000, 17139.1, 418.0, 17557.1
24. John Stockton, 1984-2003, 17006.1, 523.6, 17529.7
25. Gary Payton, 1990-2005, 16878.0, 523.6, 17401.6
26. Artis Gilmore, 1971-1988, 17375.7, 0.0, 17375.7
27. Rick Barry, 1965-1980, 16677.6, 502.9, 17180.5
28. Scottie Pippen, 1987-2004, 16536.3, 502.9, 17039.2
29. George Gervin, 1972-1986, 16304.3, 651.5, 16955.8
30. John Havlicek, 1962-1978, 16248.4, 502.9, 16751.3
31. Kobe Bryant, 1996-2006, 16032.8, 651.5, 16684.3
32. Jason Kidd, 1994-2006, 16096.0, 523.6, 16619.6
33. Pat Ewing, 1985-2002, 16609.2, 0.0, 16609.2
34. Isiah Thomas, 1981-1993, 15847.2, 523.6, 16370.8
35. Allen Iverson, 1996-2006, 15825.1, 523.6, 16348.7
36. Clyde Drexler, 1983-1998, 15594.0, 651.5, 16245.5
37. George McGinnis, 1971-1982, 15661.4, 418.0, 16079.4
38. Walt Frazier, 1967-1980, 15210.5, 523.6, 15734.1
39. Bob McAdoo, 1972-1986, 15574, 0.0, 15574.0
40. Connie Hawkins, 1961-1976, 14956.0, 502.9, 15458.9
41. Paul Arizin, 1950-1962, 14906.3, 502.9, 15409.2
42. Billy Cunningham, 1965-1976, 14869.1, 502.9, 15372.0
43. Dave Cowens, 1970-1983, 15258.6, 0.0, 15258.6
44. Dominique Wilkins, 1982-1999, 14542.8, 502.9, 15045.7
45. Dirk Nowitzki, 1998-2006, 14610.8, 418.0, 15028.8
46. Alex English, 1976-1991, 14486.0, 502.9, 14988.9
47. Chris Webber, 1993-2006, 14344.0, 418.0, 14762.0
48. Dan Issel, 1970-1985, 14331.7, 418.0, 14749.7
49. Bob Lanier, 1970-1984, 14649.0, 0.0, 14649.0
50. Mel Daniels, 1967-1977, 14557.3, 0.0, 14557.3
51. Tim Hardaway, 1989-2003, 13990.9, 523.6, 14514.5
52. Willis Reed, 1964-1974, 14458.4, 0.0, 14458.4
53. Bill Sharman, 1950-1961, 13802.7, 651.5, 14454.2
54. Mo Cheeks, 1978-1993, 13909.0, 523.6, 14432.6
55. Hal Greer, 1958-1973, 13769.6, 651.5, 14421.1
56. Dennis Johnson, 1976-1990, 13731.9, 651.5, 14383.4
57. Robert Parish, 1976-1997, 14340.4, 0.0, 14340.4
58. Gus Williams, 1975-1987, 13733.0, 523.6, 14256.6
59. Kevin Johnson, 1987-2000, 13653.7, 523.6, 14177.3
60. Steve Nash, 1996-2006, 13497.4, 523.6, 14021.0
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